For most of 2026, the prevailing assumption among rate traders was straightforward: the Fed would hike at least once before December. That consensus is now cracking.
Traders no longer fully price in a federal rate hike this year, a meaningful shift in sentiment that carries direct consequences for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The move reflects a recalibration across bond markets, prediction platforms, and interest-rate swaps as participants digest sticky inflation, resilient employment data, and a Fed that seems content to sit on its hands.
What the numbers actually say
The federal funds rate currently sits in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Interest-rate swaps now assign roughly a 60% probability to a rate hike by October. That represents a notable pullback from earlier in the year when a hike was treated as a near-certainty.
Prediction markets tell a similar story. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket show odds of 43% to 48% for at least one rate hike in 2026.
