The European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision on June 11, and nearly everyone on Wall Street and beyond has already placed their bets. Over 90% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points, from 2.00% to 2.25%.
If confirmed, this would mark the ECB’s first rate hike since the last adjustment, which was a 25 basis point cut effective June 11, 2025. The current rate structure tells the story of a central bank that had been in wait-and-see mode. The deposit facility rate sits at 2.00%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.40%. All three have been unchanged since April 30, 2026.
Why the ECB is shifting gears
The ongoing conflict in Iran has sent energy costs surging across Europe, creating second-round inflationary effects. Rising energy prices ripple through supply chains, push up food costs, and eventually embed themselves in wage demands.
ECB President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council officials have repeatedly stressed their commitment to the 2% inflation target. That target has been under pressure for months, and the consensus view is that the ECB can no longer afford to sit on its hands.
