The Commodity Futures Trading Commission just made the most consequential move in the short but turbulent history of prediction markets. On June 10, the agency proposed the first comprehensive federal regulations for event contracts traded on registered prediction market platforms, a category that very much includes sports gambling.
What the rules actually say
The proposed regulations define exactly which types of sports-related contracts are permissible on CFTC-registered platforms. Contracts can settle on general outcomes, final scores, point spreads, and team statistics. Think “Will the Lakers win Game 7?” or “Will the over/under hit 48.5 in the Super Bowl?”
The CFTC explicitly banned contracts tied to player injuries, war, terrorism, assassinations, and what the agency broadly categorizes as manipulation-prone bets. First-pitch gambling, a niche but growing category in baseball betting circles, also got the axe.
The rules would apply to CFTC-designated contract markets, or DCMs. Kalshi and Polymarket US are both recognized as DCMs, making them the most directly affected platforms.
