Newly proposed rules to govern prediction markets would restrict bets that most regulated platforms in the U.S. don’t currently offer, like in-game props such as next pitch, markets on sports below the collegiate level, and officiating decisions.
The 267-page notice of proposed rulemaking from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released Wednesday, largely leaves intact the game-outcome, player-performance, and season-long markets that have fueled the industry’s growth. Contracts tied to final scores, point differentials, win-loss outcomes, tournament advancement, individual and team statistical performance, and season-long performance metrics would remain permissible under the proposal.
The document defends the regulator’s position that it holds exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, including sports—the CFTC is actively suing six states that have sought to tamp down platforms’ ability to offer sports event contracts, while platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com are fighting dozens of lawsuits over their sports offerings. The issue is expected to eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
“The CFTC is doubling down on the idea that they think sports are an area that falls within their jurisdiction,” former CFTC lawyer Carl Kennedy, who now works at law firm Katten Muchin, tells Front Office Sports.
