The Bank of Canada decided on June 10 to keep its policy rate parked at 2.25%, with Governor Tiff Macklem delivering a message that was equal parts reassurance and caution: there have been no significant data changes, and Canada is not definitively in a recession.
What the Bank of Canada actually said
The rate decision left the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The Bank projects modest growth of around 1% for the remainder of 2026. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to hover near the 2% target.
Macklem was careful to characterize the situation as “fluid,” pointing to ongoing global trade tensions and market volatility as the primary sources of uncertainty. The governor also acknowledged the impact of tariffs and trade practices on the Canadian economy. He stopped short of predicting any specific outcomes but maintained that if a downturn does materialize, it would likely be mild.
The GDP contraction in context
