Kazakhstan now expects to pump 98 million tons of oil in 2026, a notable cut from the 100.5 million tons it had previously penciled in. The revision, reported by Interfax, reflects a country wrestling with infrastructure headaches at the worst possible time.
The broader forecast range sits at 96 to 98 million tons of oil and gas condensate. That is a meaningful haircut for a nation that serves as Central Asia’s largest crude producer and a key supplier to global energy markets.
What’s behind the downgrade
The Tengiz field has been hit by fires and equipment outages. In a cruel twist, the very same field that helped the country beat expectations last year is now a source of uncertainty heading into 2026.
Then there’s the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, which is responsible for transporting a substantial share of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Attacks on CPC infrastructure have compounded the problem, creating bottlenecks in a system that was already under strain.
