The Federal Reserve Board will publish the results of its 2026 annual bank stress tests on June 24 at 4 p.m. EDT.
Approximately 22 large banks are being evaluated this cycle under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test framework, commonly known as DFAST. The hypothetical scenario they’re being stress-tested against is, to put it mildly, not pretty.
The doomsday scenario banks have to survive
The severely adverse scenario, finalized by the Fed in February 2026 following a public comment period in October 2025, models a hypothetical global recession that sends the US unemployment rate surging by 5.5 percentage points to a peak of 10% by the third quarter of 2027.
The scenario also includes substantial declines in both commercial real estate prices and equity markets. Capital plans from participating banks were due by April 5, 2026.
