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You’re reading Dispatch Energy, a weekly newsletter on energy and climate policy featuring Alex Trembath, Philip Rossetti, Lynne Kiesling, Rory Johnston, and Roger Pielke Jr. To access more Dispatch reporting and analysis, become a member today.

Welcome to Dispatch Energy! Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire to put a stop to renewed fighting, potentially paving the way for a broader peace deal including the U.S. within “two or three days,” President Donald Trump claimed Tuesday. But hours later—following the Iranian downing of an Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz—Trump reversed course, vowing to “respond” to the attack on U.S. military personnel. The incident marked the latest obstacle in efforts to achieve a deal with the Islamic Republic amid ongoing disruptions to the global oil market.

But would peace mean relief from high energy prices? Probably not to the extent that Americans hope, and either way, there is sure to be a long-term price increase from the war.