June 9, 2026
Ahead of Nigeria’s presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, users on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are heavily backing incumbent Bola Tinubu to secure victory.
With over $28,800 in total trading volume wagered by participants so far, Tinubu has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the market, holding a 68% probability of winning based on real-time trader consensus. Peter Obi currently trails as the closest contender, holding a 25% chance.
Other listed figures, such as Rotimi Amaechi and Omoyele Sowore, are struggling to gain market traction, each registering less than a 1% chance of victory.
Market sentiment strongly favours Tinubu due to his incumbency advantages within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The early confidence from traders is attributed to his secured party nomination and a wave of recent gubernatorial defections, which have successfully consolidated his political support across various regions in the country.
