While British politics was becoming ever more febrile and polarised, and international diplomacy was being conducted through a megaphone, a sober and deeply meaningful debate was taking place. It fell to the upper chamber of the Palace of Westminster, last week, to host a discussion about a subject that rarely gets airtime – but is so significant that it is changing the very nature of our society.
The UK’s fertility rate – the number of children a woman would have over her lifetime – is now at around 1.5 (in England and Wales, it is 1.39), and this represents the lowest level since records began. As Baroness Nargund told the House of Lords: “The UK faces a demographic shift that threatens an unfolding economic crisis.”
The statistics are stark enough. Since 2010, our fertility rate has fallen by 25 per cent (the biggest drop among G7 countries), with the result that, come 2034, pensioners will outnumber children in the UK by three million. The effect of this ageing population on our GDP and on public health funding – estimated to double within 50 years – will be to reshape our economic future.
Yet, the current tenor of British politics is so characterised by short-term thinking that few politicians can see beyond next week’s Makerfield by-election, and there is rarely an appetite to tackle problems beyond the electoral cycle. What’s more, no one is brave enough in our overheated political climate to express the undeniable reality of this demographic time bomb: the UK will rely entirely on immigration to avoid a gathering population crisis.
