Market Snapshot
In the market regarding Russia’s potential entry into Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, the current pricing reflects a 22.5% likelihood of a YES outcome, slightly up from 20% the previous day. Meanwhile, the market for Russia capturing all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026, is priced at 0.7% YES, down from 1% a day ago.
Key Takeaways
Recent developments suggest a shift in battlefield momentum in favor of Ukraine, as they have recaptured more than 230 square miles of territory.
The market pricing for Russia entering Sloviansk by the end of 2026 appears less supportive of a YES outcome, reflecting decreased confidence in Russian advances.
