Here’s a fun contradiction: S&P 500 companies collectively mentioned the word “oil” 149 times during their Q1 2026 earnings calls, according to FactSet. But when it came time to actually revise their profit forecasts, only seven companies cited higher oil prices as a reason for lowering or withholding their 2026 earnings per share guidance.
The numbers behind the noise
Average oil prices in Q1 2026 hit $97.68 per barrel. That’s a significant jump from $63.68 in the same quarter a year earlier, representing roughly a 53% increase year over year. Oil has been consistently trading above the $90 to $100 per barrel range recently.
Yet the broader S&P 500 is still expected to deliver earnings growth of approximately 14% for the quarter.
The energy sector itself is the obvious beneficiary. EPS growth for energy companies is projected at 121.5% year over year for 2026. When oil jumps from the mid-$60s to nearly $100, energy companies’ bottom lines inflate dramatically.
