Wall Street’s best guess for where the S&P 500 ends 2026 is barely above where it sits right now. A Reuters poll of 47 market strategists, analysts, and portfolio managers projects the index will close the year at 7,620, a gain of just 1.3% from its May 26 close of 7,519.12.
The numbers behind the shrug
The poll, conducted between May 15 and May 26 and published on May 27, paints a picture of cautious resilience. Respondents see the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 52,500 by year-end, while the S&P 500 is expected to push further to 8,050 by mid-2027.
Earlier forecasts this year had pointed to steeper targets. The 2026 earnings growth expectation for the S&P 500 has jumped from 16% back in January to nearly 25% more recently. The sectors capitalizing on AI advancements have been the market’s load-bearing wall, propping up index-level performance even as geopolitical chaos and commodity price spikes create headwinds everywhere else.
War, oil, and the inflation problem
