As recently as last June, many stock analysts predicted the stock market would end 2025 without any real gains.
At the time, several prominent forecasters projected the S&P 500 index would close out the year in a range between 5,600 and 6,100. The S&P had started the year around 5,900.
When a turbulent 2025 finally ended, the S&P closed at 6,845.5, up more than 16%.
That was great news for stock owners. But it also raised some questions in hindsight: How could so many forecasters have been that far off on where the market was headed? What changed between June and December?
To answer them, let’s go back to the start of 2025.
