OPEC+ agreed on June 7 to raise its July 2026 output targets by 188,000 barrels per day, the fourth straight monthly increase since April. The total quota bump across those four months now sits at nearly 600,000 bpd.
Almost none of that extra oil is actually flowing. The US-Iran conflict has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz since late February, creating what amounts to the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history. Several key OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have been unable to fully supply their customers for months.
A symbolic gesture with real consequences
Prior monthly hikes ranged from 188,000 to 206,000 bpd. Those came even after the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ in early May 2026 reshaped the group’s internal dynamics.
The war’s disruption of oil flows via the strait has hit buyers hard since the end of February. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers that route the bulk of their exports through that narrow waterway have been stuck, watching their output targets climb while their actual shipments lag behind.
