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Hello and happy Saturday. We always knew the 2026 midterms would be dramatic: The Republicans have razor-thin margins in both chambers of Congress, the party in power typically fares poorly, and President Donald Trump has had steadily declining approval ratings. We’ve seen states—red and blue—rush to redraw their congressional maps in order to influence the makeup of the House of Representatives. But the fate of the Senate potentially hinging on a scandal-ridden Democratic candidate in Maine may not have been on our bingo card.
The group of Senate seats up for election favors Republicans keeping control of the chamber, where they currently have a 53-47 majority. But polling increasingly suggests Democrats could earn a majority. Texas, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio are all vulnerable seats for the GOP. Even if the ethically challenged, Trump-endorsed Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeats James Talarico in Texas, there are paths to Democrats winning. Which brings us to Maine, where progressive upstart Graham Platner is poised to win next week’s Democratic primary.
