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Hello and happy Saturday. President Donald Trump has a history of valuing loyalty over winnability in his endorsements of primary candidates, often to the detriment of the Republican Party. (See: Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz.) Meanwhile, Democrats have a history of getting excited about—and investing oodles of money in—buzzy candidates who want to unseat GOP incumbents in red states. (See: Beto O’Rourke, Amy McGrath.) Those trends are on a collision course in the Texas Senate race.
Trump-backed Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday in a runoff for the GOP nomination. Paxton carries a significant amount of baggage into the general election: He was impeached in 2023 by the Republican-dominated Texas Legislature over a host of allegations involving bribery, misuse of his office, false statements, and an extramarital affair, though he was acquitted. Paxton’s wife, who was a state senator at the time and recused herself from the impeachment vote, has since filed for divorce.
His Democratic opponent is James Talarico, a member of the Texas House and a Presbyterian seminary student whom Republicans have mocked for his progressive religious views—he once said “God is nonbinary” and has argued that the Bible allows for abortion. Talarico has drawn comparisons to Beto O’Rourke, the former U.S. representative who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 despite raising $80 million from Democrats who wanted to turn Texas blue. O’Rourke did make it close—losing by only 2.6 points. Can Talarico do better? David Drucker spoke with Republican strategists in Texas who are concerned that he can. He reports:
