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Or sign-in if you have an account.The question is whether Alberta gets a better bargain, or, with separation defeated, do Canada and Alberta go back to the status quo? Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/PostmediaIf there is one feeling Albertans share — both the majority who want to stay in Canada and the minority who want leave — it is that they give more to the rest of Canada than they receive back. An Angus Reid poll last February found that 56 per cent of Alberta respondents believe that to be the case, with only six per cent believing the opposite.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThose numbers aren’t surprising. My own experience speaking at conferences in the past few months is that both “stay” and “leave” Albertans share the same grievances but disagree on the tactics for getting them redressed. Although Alberta remains the richest province in Canada, with per capita GDP of $71,000 in 2025, that’s a noticeable deterioration in its standard of living since 2014, when real per capita GDP peaked at $81,100. Though the oil price crash at the end of 2014 hurt the province, prices recovered in later years. But per capita GDP continued to fall as resource development stalled.Albertans and Quebecers are not the only people to have considered separation. Dissolution has been common the world round, with the number of sovereign states rising from 50 in 1945 to about 200 in 2025. Even so, there are benefits from being part of a bigger country. Large countries can more easily share the cost of public goods like defence, the legal system and foreign relations. There can also be better co-ordination of local public goods, including power transmission, transportation and communication networks. Larger markets free of tariffs and non-tariff barriers and with easy labour and capital mobility encourage more competition and economies of scale in trade.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againOn the other hand, smaller countries may be more homogeneous and better able to cater to a population’s political and cultural preferences. One widely quoted 2011 study found that a breakup is more likely when populations are less culturally homogenous and more distant from each other.The dissolution of empires (e.g., the British, Ottoman and Soviet) saw many new countries emerge. After 10 years, the loss in per capita GDP can be striking — 24 per cent on average estimated in a 2019 study. But some breakups have led to long-run prosperity, especially if the new countries have access to large markets and democratize. Norway and Sweden’s breakup in 1907, Malaysia’s expulsion of Singapore in 1965 and the “velvet divorce” of the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993 are examples. An independent Alberta presumably would have access to the huge American market.Alberta’s grievances have only grown this past decade. Federal climate policies blocked oil and gas development, fanning frustration. With Ottawa making little effort to clean up its fiscal act, deficit spending and the civil service grew rapidly. Top federal tax rates were hiked, with Albertans bearing the greatest burden.Despite these anti-growth federal policies, Alberta transferred almost $130 billion through the federal budget to other provinces from 2015 to 2024. Last year the give was $19 billion or four per cent of Alberta’s GDP. That’s much more than from any other province. Second-richest Ontario is still receiving equalization payments. Though equalization is only part of that inter-provincial transfer it remains a permanent sore point, with grants now tied to Canada’s GDP growth rate.High taxes and uncontrolled federal spending run contrary to Alberta’s small government philosophy yet Albertans feel powerless to influence federal policies. In this country, unlike Australia, Germany and the United States, provinces do not have a regionally representative body at the federal level, which means they need to protect their own interests.Albertans disagree on how best to get their grievances answered. Rather than leave Canada, Premier Danielle Smith wants more control over immigration, and a separate police force and pension and tax system. She and other “stayers” hope the province can have more control over its destiny within Confederation. But the “grand bargain” to build a “decarbonized” oil pipeline to the West Coast comes at substantial cost in the form of higher carbon taxes and a risky and expensive investment in carbon storage.Those who want to leave believe federal policies will never change. Any governing party must draw support from Quebec and Ontario, which have different cultures than Alberta. Perceptions also differ regionally. The same Angus Reid poll mentioned above reports only two per cent of Quebec and Ontario respondents believe Alberta gets less out of Confederation that it pays in.Leavers hope the uncertainty arising from separation won’t cause an economic rupture but will instead give Alberta the freedom to pursue a more prosperous future without being shackled by federal policies. Being landlocked won’t be an issue if the huge U.S. market becomes available to Alberta. As for the rest of Canada, separatists believe some sort of accommodation will be worked out that’s in everyone’s interest.Both sides are relying on hope, with stayers hoping for federal policy changes and leavers hoping for prosperity without strife. At the moment, the polls say the province will vote against separation. So the question is whether Alberta gets a better bargain as a result of having taken things to a vote. Or, with separation defeated, do Canada and Alberta go back to the status quo? If that happens, it will have been a case of all hat and no cattle. Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.