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The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran over recent months has reshaped several dimensions of the conflict. Alongside the economic pressure Iran exerted by disrupting activity in the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear file remains equally consequential. Weeks ago, Iranian media outlets close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with statements attributed to military sources, suggested that Tehran still possesses advanced weapons it has yet to deploy. Those signals raise a broader question about the nature and limits of Iranian deterrence, and whether the nuclear issue has become part of that undeclared deterrence strategy. The debate today is no longer centered on whether Iran possesses the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Rather, it focuses on whether Tehran has made the political decision to acquire a nuclear deterrent. On March 25, the Trump administration reportedly presented Iran with a peace proposal that included far-reaching restrictions on its nuclear program. The proposal called for the dismantlement of all nuclear facilities, the transfer of all nuclear materials and equipment to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and a permanent halt to uranium enrichment. Iran responded by reiterating its readiness to provide all necessary guarantees that it would not pursue nuclear weapons, while insisting on its right to develop and use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, a position consistent with the one it adopted under the 2015 nuclear agreement. Yet the war marked a new chapter in the cycle of tension and mistrust that has long defined Iranian-American relations. It followed earlier turning points that deepened Tehran’s skepticism toward Washington, most notably the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the attack on the Natanz nuclear facility in 2021, which Iran viewed as a violation of its national sovereignty.
