This market will resolve to "Yes" if Miguel Diaz-Canel talks with Donald Trump between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
A talk is defined as any interaction between Migueal Diaz-Canel and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US policy under the second Trump administration has prioritized pressure on Cuba through sanctions, executive orders, and demands for leadership change, with officials signaling that President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down before any major bilateral deal. Díaz-Canel and Cuban authorities have confirmed lower-level talks since March but explicitly rejected any discussion of regime change or his removal, while the White House has framed negotiations around a "friendly takeover" or new leadership. No direct contact between Trump and Díaz-Canel has occurred amid ongoing fuel blockades, energy crises, and public statements reiterating adversarial positions into late May. With the June 30 deadline nearing and no signs of a shift in these preconditions, trader consensus reflects the low probability of a presidential-level conversation materializing. A sudden diplomatic reversal or concession on either side could still alter the trajectory before resolution.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Miguel Diaz-Canel talks with Donald Trump between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".A talk is defined as any interaction between Migueal Diaz-Canel and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Miguel Diaz-Canel talks with Donald Trump between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
