This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US pressure on Cuba has intensified under the Trump administration through expanded sanctions, an energy blockade, and direct diplomatic signals conditioning progress on Miguel Díaz-Canel’s removal, amid Cuba’s acute fuel shortages and power outages following the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies. Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected resignation demands, reaffirmed his commitment to the current system, and continued early-stage talks focused on humanitarian relief without political concessions. No National Assembly sessions, party congresses, or verifiable internal moves point to an imminent leadership transition before mid-2026, while speculation centers on potential Castro-family successors rising within the Communist Party structure. Traders’ low implied probability of near-term ouster reflects the absence of domestic catalysts or health disclosures that could accelerate change against the backdrop of entrenched institutional control.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
