Despite its 96-year history, the World Cup is an event with a limited number of data points. After all, it’s a quadrennial event that missed two editions due to World War II. With just 22 men’s World Cups to date, it’s still a young event in terms of total tournaments.That simply means there are a number of consistent trends among winning teams that we can use to try to project who could win the 2026 World Cup. Let’s apply those common traits among previous winners to narrow down the 48-team field and see which teams are still left standing.Before starting, a caveat. The most obvious common trait for projecting a winner is to pick among the previous winners. Only eight countries have ever won a World Cup. One of them, Italy, did not qualify for 2026, and Uruguay, which won two of the first four World Cups, is a long shot this year. The other six (Brazil, Germany, England, Argentina, France, Spain) are all among the top seven spots in the betting odds to win the biggest event for the world’s game.This could be a quick and lazy endeavor where that one trait is applied, and then we say one of those six teams is likely to win it this year. While it is very likely that one of those six countries wins this World Cup, I’m going to resist that urge and pretend to be open-minded that there could be a first-time winner this year.No country from outside Europe or South America has ever won a World CupTeams eliminated: 26, including the United States, Mexico, Canada, MoroccoThis immediately cuts many teams, including all three hosts. This stat goes beyond World Cup wins; it also extends to simply making it to the final. Thirteen different nations have competed in a World Cup final: 10 from Europe and three from South America.Even as far as semifinals go, only three times has a country from outside the two dominant continents made it: the United States back in the original World Cup in 1930, South Korea as co-hosts in 2002 and Morocco at the last World Cup. Morocco has emerged as an improving national team, winning the 2025 Under-20 World Cup, taking bronze at the 2024 Olympics and making the quarterfinals at the last two U-17 World Cups since that 2022 run. The Atlas Lions could break this streak at some point, but they’re still long shots for this year.Host countries do have a strong record at World Cups, with six wins. Four host countries won their first World Cup on home soil, but none of them were complete surprise winners. That brings us to the next trend.