There have been 22 editions of the men’s World Cup that have taken place over 96 years. Despite all that history, only eight different countries have won the tournament.Six different nations (Uruguay, Italy, Germany/West Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina) won the first 11 World Cups (1930-1978). In the 11 World Cups since, Uruguay and England have not won again, while France and Spain have joined the party.The club of World Cup winners is small, and it hasn’t changed all that much in several decades.Italy didn’t qualify for the 2026 edition, and Uruguay is a long shot, but the other six previous winners all rank in the top seven in the betting odds to win the 2026 World Cup. So, what are the chances that a new champion joins this elite club?Naturally, sportsbooks have come up with an answer. On BetMGM, a first-time winner is currently priced at +220, while you can bet against that at -325. DraftKings is a bit more bullish on the chances of a first-time winner, giving it +200 odds for yes and -280 for no.Those odds imply there’s a roughly 30-33 percent chance of a first-time winner at this summer’s World Cup. The Athletic’s Austin Mock has a projection model that gives first-time winners a 38 percent chance of success.Those numbers make it seem like a realistic possibility that we could see a first-time winner at this year’s tournament. So if it’s plausible, which teams can lift the World Cup trophy?Among countries to have never won the World Cup, Portugal is the highest on the odds boards. DraftKings has the Portuguese up in fourth, ahead of Brazil, Argentina and Germany, while MGM has them sixth. The Netherlands, Norway and Belgium are also among the top 10 favorites entering the 48-team tournament.Let’s take a look at those top challengers, their odds, the chances Mock’s projection gives them and how likely Opta thinks they are to win the World Cup.PortugalMock: 6.9% (sixth)Opta: 6.9% (fifth)DraftKings: +850 (fourth)BetMGM: +900 (sixth)If you think a first-time champion is possible, Portugal is easily the most likely choice. Cristiano Ronaldo is still on the team, but the 41-year-old is not the reason why Portugal is a legitimate contender.Four players who played for Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final (Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha, Gonçalo Ramos) are in the squad. Bernardo Silva (Manchester City) and Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) are among the best midfielders in the Premier League.Portugal last made a World Cup semifinal in 2006 and has only one knockout-stage win in the five tournaments since, but this team has the talent on paper to contend.