Russia’s failure to advance on the battlefield is why it is escalating its air raids on major Ukrainian cities, analysts say. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank said the strikes were also aimed at distracting from the impact of Ukrainian long-range attacks into Russia. The Finnish Black Bird Group’s latest data shows, according to Reuters, that Russian monthly territorial gains have fallen sharply compared with the same period last year. Ukrainian open-source group DeepState this week said Russian troops in May saw their smallest monthly gains since October 2023 – 14 sq km – despite a 37.5% spike in assaults by Russian forces.
“Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive so far, and Russian forces in May 2026 have gained a presence in only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2025,” said an ISW assessment. This year, Ukrainian forces have also recaptured territory. John Helin, Black Bird Group analyst, said: “If the Russians can’t find ways to pick up momentum significantly, the goal of capturing Donbas this year is slipping out of their reach fast.”
Mathieu Boulègue of the US-based Center for European Policy Analysis said Moscow’s war machine was also grappling with shrinking industrial capacity due to western sanctions, as well as dwindling stocks of nearly all weaponry. “They are really slowly, I think, changing the cost-benefit calculus of the Kremlin,” he said of Russia’s appetite for continuing the war.
