Russia lost ground in the war against Ukraine during April 2026 for the first time since summer 2024, according to battlefield analysis conducted by the Institute for the Study of War. This is the latest indication in recent months that the tide may be turning against Moscow as Putin’s faltering invasion approaches a fifth summer.
Ukraine’s recent battlefield gains have not come as a result of any innovative new weapons systems or a sudden surge in Western arms deliveries. Instead, they appear to have been enabled primarily by mounting command and communications problems within the Russian military.
Shortly after the first reports of new Ukrainian offensive operations began to emerge in early 2026, US company SpaceX decided to cut the Russian army’s illicit access to the satellite-based Starlink system. Within weeks, Ukrainian forces had advanced ten to twelve kilometers in two separate thrusts on the southern front of the war, recovering territory lost to Russia months earlier.
Communications failures appear to have contributed significantly to Russia’s problems. According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russian commanders on the southern front were forced to rely on inaccurate maps showing exaggerated gains, while clusters of Russian troops were deployed to forward positions without adequate communication tools or coordination, leaving them highly vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.
