Michael Burry, the investor who became a household name by betting against the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis, is now turning his attention to one of the most celebrated companies in the AI era. His target: Nvidia’s increasingly lopsided customer base.
In a series of Substack posts published in late May, Burry laid out a case that Nvidia’s revenue structure has a vulnerability hiding in plain sight. The top three customers now account for 64% of the chipmaker’s accounts receivable, up from 56% just one quarter earlier. For context, that same figure sat at 33% back in 2020. In Burry’s own words, customer concentration is “off the charts.”
The numbers behind the warning
The trajectory tells a stark story. Going from 33% concentration in 2020 to 64% in Q1 2026 means Nvidia’s dependency on its biggest buyers has nearly doubled in six years. That 8-percentage-point jump from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 alone suggests the trend is accelerating, not stabilizing.
Burry zeroed in on Microsoft specifically. Microsoft’s revenue share declined for the first time in 13 quarters, even as its receivables climbed. Burry suggested this could indicate front-loading, where a customer stockpiles inventory or capacity ahead of potential changes, or it could signal collection challenges.
