Market Snapshot
The market for “Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?” currently prices a 36.3% chance of a YES outcome, down from 44% a day ago. Meanwhile, the market on “Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?” is at 28.5% YES, slightly up from 28% 24 hours ago.
Key Takeaways
The news of an Israeli attack on Lebanon appears to increase the likelihood of further Israeli strikes in 2026.
The probability of an extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by June 7 appears to have decreased as a result of the attack.
