The warming El Nino climate phenomenon is likely to develop by the end of August, the United Nations' weather agency said, raising the risk of extreme weather as Europe faces another summer on the front line of climate change.
Issued on: 03/06/2026 - 08:15
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN weather agency, said on Tuesday there was an 80 percent chance of El Nino conditions emerging between June and August, driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific. While El Nino begins far from Europe, its influence can spread across the global climate system, affecting temperatures, rainfall, trade, agriculture and public health. For Europe – the fastest-heating continent – the prospect of another warming push comes at a sensitive moment. "Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Nino conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns," the WMO said. Pacific Ocean warming fuels fears of powerful 'super El Nino' Pacific warming El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, changing winds, pressure systems and rainfall patterns around the world. It generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, alternating with its cooling counterpart La Nina and neutral phases in between. The WMO said the likelihood of El Nino developing by November was "near or above 90 percent", with most forecast models suggesting it would be "at least moderate – and possibly strong". The warning is particularly important for Europe because the continent is heating at roughly twice the global average, leaving its cities, farms, rivers and health systems increasingly exposed to heatwaves, drought and flash flooding.
