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An El Niño that peaks over the New Zealand summer is now very likely, bringing with it the risks of drought, extremely hot days and wildfire.
Earth Sciences New Zealand and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) are both warning that an El Niño event is developing, fuelled by warmer than usual waters in the tropical Pacific.
A WMO update issued overnight said there was an 80 percent chance an official El Niño event emerging during winter, with an even higher probability of that continuing until at least November.
ESNZ's latest seasonal climate outlook puts the prospect even higher, with a 95 percent chance of El Niño conditions forming over winter.
