Record high early voting tells us little about who's actually winning, experts say

An election official displays a ballot-marking stamp at a polling station set up in Seongbuk District, eastern Seoul, on June 2. [JOONGANG ILBO]

With a record share of voters casting ballots before Election Day, Korea’s major parties are racing to convince supporters that the momentum is on their side. Analysts, however, say the historic turnout may reveal little about who is actually ahead.

The 23.51 percent early voting rate set a new high for local elections, but the growing popularity of early voting across the political spectrum has weakened its value as a predictor of partisan advantage. As both parties mount last-minute efforts to mobilize supporters ahead of Wednesday's vote, turnout on election day — rather than early voting alone — is likely to determine the outcome in key battleground races.

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Before this year’s election, the highest early voting rate in a local election was 20.62 percent, recorded in 2022. Yet overall turnout that year reached only 50.9 percent, lower than the 56.8 percent recorded in 2014 and the 60.2 percent recorded in 2018.