## Market Snapshot
Iran military action against neighbors is currently priced at high likelihood with increasing YES support. Israel-Iran permanent peace deal odds have decreased significantly to 5.8% YES, reflecting heightened tensions.
## Key Takeaways
– Iran’s warning to Israeli civilians suggests a severe escalation in military actions between Iran and Israel. – Market pricing indicates a decreasing probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 2026. – The involvement of Hezbollah adds complexity and reduces the chances of peace agreements involving Israel.
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