## Market Snapshot
The market on “Iran Military Action Against Neighbors” is currently active, suggesting increased likelihood of military action by Iran. The “Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 30, 2026” market reflects a decrease in the probability of a peace deal, now priced at 12% YES. The “Israel Strikes in 2026” market suggests a 35% YES probability for Israel conducting strikes in multiple countries by the end of the year.
## Key Takeaways
– Saudi interceptions and IDF strikes in Gaza appear to increase the likelihood of Iranian military action against neighboring countries. – Hostilities involving Hezbollah and IDF operations suggest a decrease in the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 2026. – IDF’s ongoing actions in Gaza are consistent with scenarios where Israel might strike multiple countries by the end of 2026.
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