So close, yet still so far away. On March 24, the Columbus Blue Jackets sat at 38-22-11, seven points up on the Philadelphia Flyers, with a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Blue Jackets looked like they had finally arrived … until they collapsed, going 2-8-1 the rest of the way and allowing the Flyers to pass them in the standings.And that was just to make the playoffs. Contending? That’s a whole other story.As is the case for a lot of teams on the outside looking in, the Blue Jackets have a lot of pieces in place — they just don’t have the ones needed in the most important places.Here’s where the Blue Jackets stand going into the 2026-27 season. All projected values are age-adjusted based on each player’s profile of comparable peers. Here’s a primer on the Stanley Cup Checklist.What the Blue Jackets have The biggest reason to remain optimistic about Columbus’ future is the massive glow-up from Zach Werenski in 2024-25.The likely 2025-26 Norris winner went from being a flawed No. 1 defender without help to a dominantly dynamic driver who didn’t need it. Werenski became a one-man wrecking crew in the same sphere of influence as the league’s upper-echelon defensemen and enters the upcoming season with the second-highest Net Rating in the league among defensemen. That’s a heckuva starting point for Columbus.Between the pipes, the hope is Jet Greaves can deliver a similar level of high-end upside. This season, Greaves finished seventh in GSAx and over his 75 games played the last three seasons, he has the highest GSAx/82 of any goalie to play 20 games or more. Greaves looks like a goalie with legitimate star upside and is just entering his prime; he starts the year with a top-10 projected Net Rating among goalies.Within the support and depth core, every box is checked off with some spots more adamant than others. The blue line after Werenski isn’t spectacular relative to a contender, but it is passable after the top four showed some growth last season. Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson have played up to their pricey contracts while Denton Mateychuk has the potential to be a strong No. 2 behind Werenski. Some of his top comps — Kris Letang, Roman Josi, Josh Morrissey are all in the top 10 — are downright tantalizing.Up front, Columbus’ depth is enviable with a strong fleet of needle-movers in the top nine. The problem? The major holes above them.What the Blue Jackets needThere is no way around it: The Blue Jackets are missing the kind of forwards almost every Cup-winning team has possessed.It’s not just Columbus missing the uber-elite franchise type — it’s also the lack of a high-end star alongside that piece and the elite two-way presence that makes life easier for them. Almost every Cup-winner over the last decade has a Big Three, like Florida’s Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart. The Blue Jackets have a Big Zero and that’s a big problem.What that does is push players up the lineup to the point they’re overwhelmed against better-equipped teams. Columbus has the depth to fill out the lower-level cores with players like Conor Garland, Mathieu Olivier and Cole Sillinger. And that especially holds true if they re-sign Mason Marchment or if Kent Johnson can return to his 2024-25 form.But as players climb up the ladder, the situation becomes a bit more untenable, where Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan look great as depth but don’t exactly fit the bill as an appropriate second layer. That also pushes Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko up to the elite core and while that duo has shown flashes of dominance, they don’t exactly compare favorably to other top duos in the East.One name likely to get more time in Columbus next season is Luca Del Bel Belluz, who has played at just under a point-per-game for the past two seasons with AHL Cleveland. Is Del Bel Belluz a top-six player? Not right away, and maybe not ever. But he hasn’t ever looked out of place in the NHL, and it’s time to find out if he’s a middle-six player (with the right mates) or a bottom-six guy. If his skating doesn’t get markedly better, it’s likely the former.In a perfect world, Cayden Lindstrom — the No. 4 overall pick in 2024 — would already have his toes wet in the NHL and be ready to make an impact. But that timeline has been dramatically altered by the back surgery that pretty much wiped out the young center’s 2024-25 season. He had a surprisingly unproductive freshman year at Michigan State (3-7-10 in 31 games), but the fact that his back made it all the way through the season was seen as good news. Obviously, he needs to have a huge sophomore season to restore confidence in the club that passed on Ivan Demidov to select Lindstrom.The Blue Jackets have a lot of boxes checked, but lacking the most important ones leaves the team in a tricky predicament — and farther off from contending than the depth of their roster may indicate. Even if the Blue Jackets did make the playoffs this season, it’s more than likely the top of their lineup would’ve been exposed.The big questionCan Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko take The Leap?Look around the East and try to stack up Fantilli and Marchenko with the rest. Every other contending team and team with contending aspirations has a stronger one-two punch at the very top of the lineup than Columbus. Even the Carolina Hurricanes — who won the East with a somewhat questionable top duo of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis — are miles ahead of what Columbus has. We’re talking arguably the two most important players for a team and the Blue Jackets don’t have it. Not yet, anyway.What they do have is the potential to fill that role internally.The Blue Jackets saw Fantilli’s 2025-26 as a major step forward. He stepped into the No. 1 center role when Sean Monahan sagged badly in his second season with Columbus, drawing much tougher matchups and becoming a more well-rounded player.But while Fantilli has scored 55 goals the past two seasons, he’s the first to express his frustration that his offensive totals haven’t yet popped in a way that puts him among the NHL’s young elites. Fantilli’s possession numbers also leave a lot to be desired to get to the level necessary for franchise status, where the bar to clear is high. The goal: a responsible two-way center with 90-point upside. Fantilli is still very far away from that.There’s a drive inside him — an anger, some nights — that suggests it can happen. Columbus needs to start seeing it soon.Marchenko, of course, can help. The lanky Russian has been productive, too, but he faded badly late in the season when the pace and physicality of games cranked up and he started getting targeted for physical play. That’s either a valuable lesson for him, or a worrying sign for the Blue Jackets if he doesn’t adjust. Marchenko has flashed 90-point upside himself and is much closer to being a passable star forward, but is still a ways off from what other top teams in the East can offer.Even if both players hit, they could still use a third partner in crime. Dmitri Voronkov and Kent Johnson have both had moments, but last year was an utter disappointment for both players. Mason Marchment had his moments, too, but he might leave as a UFA.Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell would like to add scoring up top, which puts him on a list with, oh, 25 other NHL GMs. Failing that, the Blue Jackets’ improvements will have to come from their young players taking the painful lessons of last season and making big strides forward.Possible? Sure. But suspicion is warranted, too.If Fantilli can make The Leap next season and bring Marchenko along for the ride, the Blue Jackets instantly become a much more dangerous team in the East. That’s a real possibility given Fantilli’s talent and pedigree.But there’s also a chance that Fantilli simply doesn’t take that leap to superstardom. There’s nothing wrong with him topping out as a first-line forward and even just getting to that level makes Columbus a good playoff bet.But for the team to go further and challenge the league’s best, they need Fantilli to become franchise-caliber. At this point, that’s not a given.