St. Louis’ biggest problem? The entire season isn’t played after February.Last season, the Blues went 16-4-3 after starting the year 21-29-9. The year prior was just as miraculous: The Blues went 16-4-2 after starting 28-26-6 and made the playoffs as a result.Underneath the current surface of mediocrity lies a great team, one that has closed each of the last two seasons with pure dominance. It’s also one with a shocking amount of contender-worthy pieces at prime ages.What’s missing is the daily consistency needed to not only make the playoffs but go the distance. The question is whether these Blues are on the cusp of something special or on the brink of something that can be good, but never great enough.Here’s where the Blues stand going into the 2026-27 season. All projected values are age-adjusted based on each player’s profile of comparable peers. Here’s a primer on the Cup Checklist.What the Blues have To the surprise of presumably many St. Louis natives who have long vilified The Model™, the Blues actually end up in really good shape according to the Cup Checklist. Sure, there are some big needs, but there are also a lot of roles filled adequately with several players in prime position to continue growing.That all starts with the masterstroke that was Doug Armstrong’s dual offer sheet in the summer of 2024, a franchise-altering moment that has genuinely changed this team’s trajectory. While it was fair to assume both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg had the pedigree to be difference-makers at some point, what they’ve become so quickly as Blues has been stunning to witness.Both players have been a marvel as dual-threat drivers and complete 200-foot players. When the top comps for the duo are Mark Stone and Marc-Édouard Vlasic, you know the Blues are in good hands. Their presence puts the team’s elite core in decent shape with Robert Thomas’ star power and Joel Hofer’s emergence as a legitimate starter.Beyond that group, the Blues still have the shutdown prowess of Colton Parayko and a strong mix of talent up front to support Thomas and Holloway.Jimmy Snuggerud was the big revelation last season and is projected to take another step next season. The 21-year-old had an impressive debut, scoring 51 points, and is the team’s best bet to become a high-level piece. That was once Jordan Kyrou’s domain and as frustrating as his drop in production was last year, he made genuine strides without the puck that should be commended. That pushes Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Neighbours and Pius Suter into appropriate support roles, albeit for a high price on the Buchnevich front.For a team that only earned 86 points last year, that’s a strong haul that’s among the best of the non-playoff teams.What the Blues needThere are three major holes here holding the Blues back from turning their annual March run into a full season of dominance: a franchise forward and an entire second pair.On the franchise forward front, the team has a trio of internal options who have a genuine shot to get there, even if it isn’t the most likely path.Thomas has played at that level for stretches and is the closest thing the Blues have to the high-end players that litter Stanley Cup contenders. After a slow start last year, Thomas came on strong and finished the season with 64 points in 64 games and some genuinely elite numbers at five-on-five. Thomas is one of the game’s best passers, but it would be helpful if he could become more of a personal scoring threat. A Thomas who can chip in a few more goals, hit 90-plus points and continue tilting the ice the way he has the last year is a scary thought.If not Thomas, Holloway has a chance to get there himself based on his post-Olympic break play. He led the Blues with 34 points in 25 games while being his usual beastly self at five-on-five. It’s Holloway’s two-way game that makes him so impressive and if he can add consistently elite scoring to that, he’s going to be a special player.Age is a part of this and that’s where Snuggerud being 21 is a huge advantage for this discussion. What he already did as a rookie was impressive enough, but what’s more tantalizing is that a lot of it also came down the stretch, where he was a point-per-game player after the Olympic break. If he’s already scoring like that, there could be some serious upside here.The key to all three having some shot to get there: how they played together on a line after the Olympic break, outscoring teams by more than a three-to-one ratio. They elevated each other to an extreme degree and if that can sustain for a full season, the Blues could have something real at the top of the lineup.The holes on defense are another story.Beyond Broberg, the blue line wasn’t good enough last season. The overall numbers improved after the team switched to a man-to-man defensive scheme and the goaltending got better, but there are still glaring holes.Broberg is developing into a strong shutdown defenseman, but he still has some untapped offensive potential that needs to be extracted. He was promoted to the top pair and the No. 1 power play, and will continue to receive those responsibilities.Parayko, who was moved to the second pair last season, is the lone defensive defenseman in the top four. He played well with Theo Lindstein last season, but the 21-year-old rookie suited up in just 17 games, so can the team count on the same chemistry and results over an 84-game season? The Blues need another defensive-minded player in the second pair and that will be magnified if they revisit the plan to trade Parayko, which they tried last season. Even if Parayko isn’t moved, he’s 33 years old; the club will have to address it at some point.The other requirement will be finding more offense from the back end. Justin Faulk led the group in goals last season and he’s gone — and it’s arguable he wasn’t driving much offense beyond his personal stat line either. Parayko fell from 16 goals and 36 points in 2024-25 to four goals and 18 points last season.So there are some necessities for this defense to become a Cup contender, but the roster is in transition and there are players who could fill those roles in the future. In addition to Lindstein and Logan Mailloux, 23, there’s fellow first-rounder Adam Jiricek, 19, who could be in the lineup as a rookie next season.The question becomes whether the Blues want to bring in some reinforcement now, or let their recent high draft picks take their lumps.The big question Should the Blues stay the course or chart a new one?No doubt stay the course.As mentioned, the Blues aren’t that far off in terms of having the key pieces in place. But whether incoming general manager Alexander Steen keeps those pieces — specifically Thomas — is the question.With the way Thomas finished the season, and given what he meant to the success of both Holloway and Snuggerud down the stretch, the thought of trading the team’s No. 1 center seems outrageous. But that’s no guarantee it won’t happen.If the Blues keep their top line intact — especially if Snuggerud becomes that missing franchise forward — and can build around Broberg and Joel Hofer, they will be in much better shape than given credit for. The group deserves some patience to see that through with some reinforcements around the edges.It won’t be easy to get over the hump and there’s still a lot of work to get to the level of a consistent contender. Unlike the past two seasons, the Blues have to be ready for the start of the season and bring a stronger work ethic on a more consistent basis. But they have a genuinely strong foundation in place with a lot of depth to it.Now, they need what they have to continue growing and they need to supplement that with the right missing pieces. The Blues are on the right track and they have a dual offer sheet coup to thank for that.The Blues are on the right track. With the right moves and some patience, they have a real shot at returning to contention. Keeping Robert Thomas is a must in that discussion; this is a team worth adding to, not taking away from.