US inflation, Fed no longer sees pressures as transitory

## Market Snapshot

The market for a potential Fed rate hike in 2026 is currently priced at 31.5% YES, down from 32% 24 hours ago and 44% a week ago. The market for a Fed rate cut by June 2026 is priced at 1.7% YES, slightly reduced from 2% a day ago.

## Key Takeaways

– Inflation reaching 3.8% suggests a stronger likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2026. – The Fed’s acknowledgment of persistent inflation could indicate a lower probability of a rate cut by June 2026. – Recent energy price increases tied to geopolitical tensions appear to be a significant factor in inflation dynamics.

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