Fed minutes reveal openness to rate hikes if inflation stays above 2% target

Photo by: Chip Somodevilla

## Market Snapshot

Fed Rate Decisions market is currently less supportive of a rate cut, with odds reflecting a 1.2% YES for a cut by June 2026. The Fed Rate Hike in 2026 market shows a 31.5% YES probability, up from 28% a week ago, indicating increased likelihood of a rate hike.

## Key Takeaways

– The Fed minutes appear to decrease the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term, as officials are open to hikes if inflation persists above target. – Market pricing suggests an increased probability of a rate hike in 2026, with YES odds rising to 31.5%. – The announcement reflects a more hawkish stance, consistent with reduced expectations for monetary easing by mid-2026.