San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly spoke at an event called “The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy” in San Jose, California, acknowledging AI’s potential but flagging a familiar problem: regulation is getting in the way of the technology actually delivering sustained productivity growth.
Despite billions pouring into AI infrastructure and development, the macroeconomic evidence for meaningful productivity gains remains limited. Most studies Daly referenced indicate only modest advancements in aggregate productivity so far.
The electricity analogy, again
Daly drew parallels between the current AI moment and previous technological revolutions, specifically the adoption of electricity and information technology. She pointed to modest productivity impacts already visible in specific sectors like call centers, software development, and financial services.
To get a better read on what’s actually happening, Daly argued the Fed needs to dig into disaggregated micro data and ramp up business outreach. She compared this approach to former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s strategy during the 1990s computing boom, when Greenspan relied on granular business intelligence to understand productivity trends that weren’t yet showing up in official numbers.
