Trump suggests ending Hormuz blockade amid Iran tensions

## Market Snapshot

In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the likelihood of an announcement by May 31 is now priced at 71.5% YES, significantly up from 10% yesterday. The “Iranian Demands Trump Will Agree To by June 30” market shows mixed responses with sub-markets ranging from 5.5% to 54.5% YES.

## Key Takeaways

– Trump’s recent statements appear to suggest a shift toward de-escalation with Iran, which could impact US troop withdrawal probabilities. – The market for lifting the Hormuz blockade is consistent with a YES outcome, as evidenced by the sharp increase in pricing. – The overall market activity suggests participants see a higher likelihood of diplomatic movements before the end of May.

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