Gediminas Simkus, the ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, said a rate hike at the European Central Bank’s June 2026 meeting is the most likely outcome. But when asked about what comes after that, his answer was essentially a shrug.
The timing of a second rate hike, Simkus indicated, is unclear. That kind of ambiguity from a central banker who just weeks ago called a June increase “sufficiently obvious” tells you something about how uncertain the macro picture really is right now.
From 50/50 to hawkish in three months
Back in February, Simkus was firmly on the fence. He publicly stated there was a 50/50 chance that the ECB’s next move could be either a rate hike or a cut.
By April, his tone had hardened slightly, though not enough to pull the trigger. He advised against hiking rates at that month’s meeting, suggesting policymakers needed more data before making any significant adjustments.
