This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 61% implied probability that no AI model reaches 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, reflecting current frontier large language models clustered around 1500–1506. Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking and related variants hold the narrowest lead at 22% market-implied odds after topping or tying recent leaderboard snapshots in reasoning and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 iterations follow at 7.5% and 3.0%, respectively, with xAI’s Grok models at 2.3%. These positions stem from incremental 2026 releases that have narrowed gaps but produced only modest Elo gains rather than the sustained leaps required to clear 1550 before year-end, amid typical product-cycle uncertainties and compute scaling limits.This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETVolume$66,374End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedFeb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
