This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s late-May release of Claude Opus 4.8 has briefly topped several intelligence indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants continue to lead composite quality leaderboards and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview demonstrates strong multimodal and agentic results. The race remains tight because frontier labs are iterating on large language models every few weeks, with gains concentrated in coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench, reasoning tasks, and tool-use agents. Open-source challengers from Meta and Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen add pressure on cost and accessibility. Key catalysts through December include expected follow-on releases, developer conferences, and any shifts in regulatory scrutiny that could affect training data or deployment timelines. Trader sentiment reflects this ongoing convergence in capabilities rather than any single dominant model.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
