Although still private, the shadow of OpenAI and its still unprofitable business despite the blockbuster success of ChatGPT have rattled markets throughout the back half of 2025. Talk of a bubble in artificial intelligence has not been quelled despite Nvidia delivering yet another blockbuster quarter in November. The question remains of how OpenAI will balance ChatGPT’s seemingly endless desire, on the one hand, for “compute,” provided by data centers sprouting throughout the economy, with a business model that takes it from the red into the black. This is the same question that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman answered in a single exasperated word on a recent podcast appearance: “Enough.”
The investment bank HSBC, while clarifying that it still believes AI is a “megacycle” and that its forecasts “indicate a leading position for OpenAI from a revenue standpoint,” nevertheless calculates that the company faces an extraordinary financial mountain if it is to deliver on its ambitions. HSBC Global Investment Research projects that OpenAI still won’t be profitable by 2030, even though its consumer base will grow by that point to comprise some 44% of the world’s adult population (up from 10% in 2025). Beyond that, it will need at least another $207 billion of compute to keep up with its growth plans. This stark assessment reflects soaring infrastructure costs, heightened competition, and an AI market that is surging in demand and cash-intensive to a degree beyond any technology trend in history.
