The US and Iran may be inching closer to a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at extending a fragile ceasefire and an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving other contentious issues like Iran’s nuclear program for later. Talks have raised hopes in the past only to founder over details, so nothing is guaranteed. The focus on reopening the strait reflects how the energy chokepoint is now the most urgent issue. But flows are unlikely to return to prewar levels anytime soon, while oil markets are racing toward a midsummer “red zone” as global inventories deplete rapidly.