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The American Gaming Association estimates that prediction market platforms have cost state governments more than $1 billion in foregone gaming tax revenue, with the bulk of that figure accumulating since the start of 2025.
Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box," Bill Miller, the association's president and CEO, tied the revenue shortfall directly to the taxes states collect from licensed gambling operators. "It's about states and tribes that are losing literally a billion dollars today in state and tribal revenue that would otherwise go to fund important community projects," Miller told CNBC. Miller also pointed to Native American tribal casinos as bearing a share of the financial impact.
According to CNBC, Miller labeled prediction markets "backdoor sports betting," contending that these platforms function like unregulated national sportsbooks that sidestep the gaming taxes paid by their licensed competitors. The platforms' self-description as financial investing tools rings hollow to Miller, who noted that sports-related event contracts drive the bulk of their trading volume.
The association's commercial gaming revenue tracker puts the figure at nearly $950 million in potential gaming taxes lost since the start of 2025 alone. Regulated gaming generated $4.67 billion in gaming tax revenue for states in the first quarter of 2026, an 11% increase over the prior year — a figure the association said would be higher but for operators of prediction market platforms, skill machines, and sweepstakes casino sites, none of which pay state gaming taxes.
