This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The strong market consensus against a hantavirus vaccine becoming available in 2026 reflects the early-stage status of all candidates under development. No licensed vaccine exists for hantavirus infection, as confirmed by the World Health Organization, with care limited to supportive treatment. DNA-based candidates targeting viruses such as Andes, Hantaan, and Puumala have advanced to Phase 1 or early Phase 2 trials showing immunogenicity in small human cohorts, while mRNA approaches from Moderna and collaborators remain in preclinical testing with rodent data only. Vaccine development timelines, regulatory requirements, and limited commercial interest for this rare rodent-borne pathogen make completion of pivotal trials, manufacturing scale-up, and approval by year-end highly improbable absent unprecedented acceleration. New outbreak surveillance data or major funding commitments could prompt faster progress but would still face multi-year hurdles.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
