Roughly 200,000 banking jobs across Europe could disappear by the end of this decade. That’s the central finding from a Morgan Stanley analysis covering 35 major European banks, which collectively employ around 2.1 million people.
The numbers behind the forecast
Morgan Stanley’s analysis projects that European banks will eliminate between 200,000 and 212,000 positions by 2030. That translates to roughly 10% of the total workforce across the 35 institutions studied.
The roles most vulnerable sit in what banks call “central services.” Think back-office operations, middle-office functions, risk management, and compliance departments. These are the areas where AI excels at pattern recognition, data processing, and rule-based decision-making. Banks surveyed indicated that AI adoption could drive efficiency improvements of up to 30% in these functions.
Some individual banks are already moving faster than the sector-wide average would suggest. ABN Amro, the Dutch lender, has announced plans to reduce its full-time staff by 20% by 2028. That’s double the pace of the broader industry projection.
