Morgan Stanley doubles its forecast: European banks could shed 20% of jobs on AI

The May estimate is twice the bank’s January figure, and the workforce cuts are already happening at UBS, ABN Amro and HSBC.

Morgan Stanley has doubled its forecast for AI-driven job losses across the European banking sector, estimating that as much as 20% of total banking employment could be eliminated by 2030 as lenders push generative-AI tools into back-office, risk and compliance workflows.

The revised figure, reported by Bloomberg on Thursday, lifts the estimate to roughly 400,000 jobs from the 200,000-job, 10% projection the bank published in January.

The doubling is the part worth pausing on. Five months ago, Morgan Stanley analysts argued AI deployment across the European banking sector would translate into around 200,000 cumulative role eliminations by the end of the decade, concentrated in back-office, KYC-and-AML compliance, and middle-office risk-monitoring positions.

The 💜 of EU techThe latest rumblings from the EU tech scene, a story from our wise ol' founder Boris, and some questionable AI art. It's free, every week, in your inbox. Sign up now!The May revision keeps the same functional concentration but scales the headline number up substantially.