For three straight quarters, CEO confidence had been climbing. That streak is over.
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index fell 1.7 points to 87.2 in Q1 2026, based on a survey of 1,302 small and midsize business leaders conducted between March 2 and March 16. It marks the first decline since the index began its upward trajectory in mid-2025, and the timing isn’t subtle: the Iran conflict had just kicked off shortly before executives filled out their questionnaires.
The numbers paint a conflicted picture
The Business Roundtable’s Q1 2026 CEO Economic Outlook Index, which polls 169 leaders of large corporations, actually rose nine points to 89. That’s above the long-term average of 83, driven by expectations for stronger sales and increased capital expenditures.
A Chief Executive poll from May 2026 adds a more cautious note. The share of CEOs expecting better business conditions over the next year dropped from 52% in April to 48%.
