Gas prices are up 40.5% from a year ago. Consumer sentiment just hit a record low of 49.8. And somewhere in the gap between those two facts, American employers are quietly getting nervous about hiring.
The Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, sent shockwaves through global energy markets almost immediately. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil supplies, were enough to push U.S. inflation above 4% for the first time in three years by May 2026.
The energy bill nobody asked for
Here is what 40.5% higher gasoline prices look like in practice: the average U.S. household has paid nearly $450 more in energy costs since February alone. Energy costs accounted for over 60% of monthly CPI gains in May 2026.
A reading of 49.8 on the consumer sentiment index is not a soft landing number. It is a number that historically precedes pullbacks in big-ticket purchases, tighter household budgets, and employers second-guessing their headcount plans.
