As tensions in West Asia continue to dominate global conversations, market participants are trying to assess whether the worst of the oil shock is over or if another spike in crude prices still lies ahead. According to market expert Arvind Sanger from Geosphere Capital, the probability of oil surging back to extreme levels has reduced significantly, although prices are unlikely to return to the comfort zone seen before the conflict.Speaking to ET Now, Sanger said both the United States and Iran appear increasingly inclined toward a negotiated settlement, lowering the chances of a severe disruption in oil supply.“The probability of a spike is much lower now because it is very clear that President Trump wants a deal and Iran wants a deal too and it knows it is getting a deal on much more favourable terms,” Sanger said.While fears of crude touching $150 a barrel have faded, he cautioned that oil is unlikely to revisit the $60-$70 range anytime soon. Instead, markets may need to adjust to a prolonged phase of elevated energy prices.Oil May Stay Elevated for MonthsSanger believes the unwinding of supply disruptions will not happen overnight. Even if geopolitical tensions cool, logistical bottlenecks and depleted global inventories are likely to keep crude prices firm for an extended period.“It is going to take months not weeks for things to normalise,” he said.According to him, once oil flows from the Persian Gulf stabilise, consuming nations will begin rebuilding inventories that were heavily depleted during the conflict period. That process itself could create additional demand pressure.“So, both of those mean that oil is probably going to sustain $80 to $90,” he noted, adding that Brent crude could still briefly move back toward $110 if the supply normalisation process takes longer than expected.However, he stressed that the likelihood of another runaway rally similar to earlier fears of $150 crude remains low unless the region witnesses a major escalation again.Inflation Risks Still RemainWhile $85-$90 oil may not severely damage global growth, Sanger warned that the broader inflation picture remains concerning. Energy inflation is no longer limited to crude oil alone, with natural gas, fertilisers, and other commodities also contributing to price pressures worldwide.“The risk from that inflationary spiral or persistent high inflation is that central bankers may be forced to be a little more hawkish,” he said.Higher-for-longer inflation could force several central banks to maintain tight monetary policies or even raise rates again, potentially slowing economic growth in the short term.Still, Sanger argued that structurally stronger drivers such as artificial intelligence-led investments are unlikely to be derailed by moderately elevated oil prices.“I think that AI theme is going to remain to be a powerful theme,” he said, suggesting that the global technology and infrastructure cycle remains robust despite energy market volatility.Trump-Iran Negotiations Enter a Delicate PhaseSanger also offered a sharp assessment of the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, suggesting that Washington is under mounting pressure to secure a deal that does not appear politically damaging domestically.“It is pretty clear that Iran has come out on top. US has come out looking very ineffective in this war,” he remarked.According to Sanger, former US President Donald Trump now faces competing pressures from different factions within his political base. Anti-war supporters within the MAGA movement are opposed to deeper military involvement, while hawkish groups are resistant to offering concessions to Iran.He pointed out that Iran is demanding sanctions relief and upfront financial commitments, making negotiations politically sensitive for Trump, who had earlier criticised previous administrations for being too lenient toward Tehran.Sanger believes the biggest challenge now lies in crafting a deal that allows both sides to claim victory domestically.“The biggest risk is that Iran is asking for so much that Trump is going to have a hard time pretending that the US won,” he said.He warned that if negotiations drag on for weeks or months, oil markets could again become vulnerable due to low inventories and continued uncertainty around shipping routes in the region.What It Means for IndiaFor emerging markets like India, easing crude volatility would provide significant relief, especially given the country’s dependence on imported energy and fertilisers.Sanger said India would benefit if oil price upside risks fade and fertiliser supply concerns ease. However, he also cautioned that the dominant global investment narrative has shifted heavily toward artificial intelligence, an area where India is not currently viewed as a primary beneficiary.“If the theme of the moment is AI, then India is on the outside looking in,” he said.According to him, India will need to demonstrate stronger domestic growth drivers beyond the global AI boom, particularly at a time when inflationary pressures could remain elevated.As global markets navigate a fragile geopolitical environment, Sanger’s outlook suggests that while fears of an extreme oil shock may have moderated, the era of cheap crude may already be behind us.